SEMI: Ratio or Absolute?

According to View from Silicon Valley, on the one paw, the SEMI book-to-bill (B:B) ratio has leveled off to 0.93 in December. On the other, bookings are way down, to some multi-year low, and still going down. So the slope is leveling, but on the other other paw, the slope can level at any absolute level, and is not necessarily reflective of such.

By the way, according to one late, great Richard Feynman, on making calculus accessible:

The French curve is made so that at the lowest point on each curve, no matter how you turn it, the tangent is horizontal.

Apologies if this tangent wasn't humorous...

Reggie Disrespects JP Morgan

Reggie Middleton's been kinda scary right lately about financial and other institutions being caught in less than ideal financial situations. No one big, just Bear Stearns, Lehman, GGP, MBIA, Ambac, Goldman Sachs, maybe another 32 or so banks he called "doo doo." No, really. He literally referred to them as "doo doo." Is it any wonder I'm a fan?

Anyway, his latest reiterated target is JP Morgan, which he calls insolvent, possibly related to some WaMu-induced indigestion. Possibly not terribly unlike my squeaky-ball indigestion of some moons ago, which sadly required surgical attention, not to mention ritual sacrifice of not a few Benjamins. But the surgical attention was the really ouchy part. For me, at least.

I'm sure this solvency concept is completely overrated. So move along, nothing to see here.

Remember, though: squeaky balls are for squeaking, not scarfing...

Chanos and Citron vs. Apollo

Hypothetically speaking, if one were to run a part-time private school which sounded suspiciously like a four-year type of institution, and charge substantially more than a community-college type place for potentially no better results, would one then want to refund dropout students' loans to the lenders, and then go directly after the students for the money, so that one's reported dropout rate could be lower than might otherwise be fair?

Jim Chanos of Enron-shorting fame is widely reported as having a short interest in Apollo Group, parent company of the ubiquitous University of Phoenix, and Citron Research has dug up some juicy particulars about the company here and here.

Having no use for education, higher or otherwise, I will simply sit this one out and observe. And maybe eat. And sleep. And stare.

What Cliff?

Have reason to believe that if one were to understand TV in a fashion other than flashing colors and the occasional whiny/interesting dog sound or scary huge cat growl, there's this certain Coyote vs. Road Runner dualism one might find amusing. In which our hero, one Wile E. Coyote, ocassionally finds himself temporarily standing on some air. After which his gastronomical needs are apparently (gasp!) delayed.

Here might be one such topographical feature (hat tip Sudden Debt), courtesy the St. Louis Fed:



Which might provide additional fodder for the good ninja rant I previously mentioned. So much for rational actors, and predicting every coming chunka data looking nice and smooth, like in every other previous period. Hoocoodanode (RIP, Tanta)?!

On Unopposed Optimism

Yves Smith (my hero) some time ago blurbed an excerpt of an article which I strongly believe should be read by all who aspire to be critical thinkers. Especially because it lets me off the hook, partially, for being apparently allegedly unabashedly pessimistic and critical. Hey, what can I say? Isn't life supposed to be a bitch, let alone yours truly?

Not gonna bother re-excerpting it; just go and read the whole thing.

Google Blinks

Shoulda put on their doggles. Full story here. Hard to put a good spin on this:

Google is cutting "approximately 100 positions" from its human resources department...
Google will no longer be accepting uploads to Google Video...
Development will cease for Google Notebook...
Its nascent Dodgeball mobile social networking platform is getting whacked...

Cutting HR means less hiring, methinks. No, really. Contract work was officially being reduced some time ago, and anecdotally, vendors were getting squeezed and scaled back on even before that, like mid last year.

Wonder if this hits Mt. View and surrounding real estate. Don't laugh yet; was initially extremely dismissive of this conjecture, but then agnosticism set in as stories materialized about otherwise-penniless mirror-foggers bidding up houses in the area as "investments." And it doesn't seem to happen anymore, but once upon a time, googling "GOOG" got one not only the stock price, etc., but also a handful of ads for upmarket houses for sale in the vicinity of you-know-where. I poop thee not.

Update: FWIW, Blodget not so bullish on GOOG.

California Mortgage Defaults Double in December

And that's month over month, none of this year over year business, according to (who else?) Mr. Mortgage. This when Countrywide's had a Notice of Default moratorium. That's ok; Countrywide's never been a big mortgage originator or (bag)holder.

By the way, there may have been some noises made about my postings being on the negative, ranty side of things. Would now like to rationalize away such inefficient commentary.

For example, the mainstream financial media (worse than useless), believe it or not, is a wonderful source of cheery news. Because as superficially bad as they may sometimes seem to paint things, their censorship leans toward the "Let's not alarm people by giving them bromides like 'stocks for the long haul'" variety. Not to mention cutting out the meat, which is, naturally, not a Good Thing.

And one must like Ben Stein. He's just so very right so very often, and, as a result, so very sure.

Let's not even get started on CNBC or Cramer.

But how about the government? Surely they're on our side? After all, we pay them. Yeah, to lie to and steal from us. One might pause to recall Stupid CPI Games and Stupid Unemployment Games...

On the flip side, there have been some good peeps, such as Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, Bill Fleckenstein, Jim Stack, Marc Faber, Reggie Middleton, and still others who've undoubtedly undeservedly fallen out of my possibly overly spacious cranium for no good reason. Listening to their ilk would've not only limited one's losses last year, but most likely made for more kibble liquidity. Latter being an unaggravated Good Thing.

Anywho, the main point of contention here is that the point of the data I point to isn't to point out stuff is bad per se, but instead to point out bad stuff is already baked into the cake, stuffed into the pipeline, what have you. So, not to put too fine a point on it, I'm not saying stuff is bad now, more like it's already primed to be as bad or worse in the future. Don't say you weren't warned.

Update: Heh. How could I forget? Bloggers on my blog list to right not so bad, either. Mostly better than yours truly, at least. They just tend to be more economic than financial, so less linkage to yummies, hence initial oversight. My bad.

Unemployment Begets Employment

Apparently you people chase your own (figurative) tails, too. Who knew unemployment is a growth industry?

Silicon Valley Leads

In foreclosures, that is:

Foreclosure activity increased at a faster clip in Santa Clara County last year than in any other California county, a foreclosure information service said Tuesday.

Specifically:

A total of 18,610 properties in the county entered into some stage of foreclosure in 2008, said the company, up from 5,491 in 2007.

One of the admittedly selfish reasons (hey, gotta look out for Number One!) for starting this blog was to deflect from certain feeders the seemingly incessant barrage of "When are you buying?" queries, hence freeing more time and energy for actual provision of foodstuffs. Hark! Be that distant thunder, or perchance poureth forth the kibble?